The Expert Commentary
Leading commentators offer their perspectives on the key findings of the ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2018.
History tells us the danger posed by Daesh has not yet passed
Hassan Hassan is a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington DC, a columnist for The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi and co-author of New York Times bestselling book ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror . He focuses on Syria, Iraq, the Gulf states and Islamist movements. He is a contributing writer for The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times and The New York Times.
When Daesh swept through large swathes of northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria in the summer of 2014, its ideology was quickly identified as a vital aspect of the effort to permanently defeat the group. The idea of a caliphate, in particular, was consistently cited as the major driving factor behind young Muslims traveling to join the organisation in Iraq and Syria at the time.
In a briefing in June 2016, Brett McGurk, the United States special presidential envoy to the global anti-Daesh coalition, made this observation: “The common denominator when I asked leaders in various capitals what is it that’s driving your young people to this movement – the common denominator is this notion of a historic caliphate.”
The proclaimed caliphate has now all but crumbled. Of all the territories Daesh once controlled, only small and scattered pockets remain under the group’s control in eastern, central and southern Syria. The militants continue to have sanctuaries and operate in multiple countries, but they no longer control a viable “caliphate” anywhere in the region.
Against the backdrop of its territorial demise, then, the latest findings of the Arab Youth Survey provide timely insights into how young Arabs view the organisation and its future today.
While ideology was once cited as a driving factor behind Daesh’s rise, the majority of young Arabs believe the group and its ideology will be fully defeated (58 per cent). This telling finding reflects how Daesh and its appeal are perceived in the region at this critical juncture of the group’s existence.
Still, a quick examination of the circumstances relating to the appeal of Daesh over the past four years could offer cautionary tales for governments in the Middle East and beyond.
To start off, Daesh does not require a majority supporting it to continue to exist as a destructive force in the region. Before policymakers and observers woke up to the news that Daesh had taken over Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, people from across the region had already turned against it. The group that called itself the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria had already been ridiculed as Daesh, a pejorative acronym that denoted barbarism and savagery. Countless clerics and individuals also used an ancient Islamic label for extremists, khawarij, meaning “outliers” or “rebels”, to describe the group. Critically, the label implied the extremists could be fought and killed without hesitation.
And yet, the group was still able to control approximately one third of Iraq and half of Syria during the summer of 2014. The lesson was that there is more to such groups than just popular appeal or the lack thereof. They also feed on power vacuums, grievances and indifference.
When Daesh made those military gains, it counted not just on the existence of a minority of supporters but also on the fact that the local majority did not feel they had a stake in the fight against it. In other words, for Daesh and like-minded groups, local indifference to them is no less important than active support for their cause. People at the time tended to see it as an extremist group, but most also refrained from resisting it when it rolled into their areas.
The world came to the fight against Daesh several months late in 2014, after the militants had already taken over large territories in Iraq and Syria. Before that, in 2008, American and Iraqi officials also proclaimed that Daesh failed to convince Iraqis of its ideology after the group was defeated, arguably more thoroughly than now. But the group came back, stronger than before. Indeed, a small number of respondents in the survey believe Daesh will regain its territory and establish its caliphate in the future (6 per cent), and a larger number believe the group will nonetheless remain a significant terrorist threat (18 per cent).
Daesh is already recovering in much of Iraq and Syria, not long after its territorial defeat. Instead of holding territories, Daesh reverted to old insurgency tactics to maintain its ability to fight and inflict damage.
These tactics, such as targeted killings and hit-and-run attacks, had a proven record of effectiveness in weakening local police and military forces and preventing residents from joining these institutions from 2008 to 2014. In one of its recent publications, Daesh even claimed that the rates of its attacks have come close to those that preceded its takeover of Mosul in 2014.
Daesh’s continued attacks are especially effective if they are not met with military and political counter-measures to strengthen security institutions and encourage locals to feel they have a stake in maintaining them.
The optimism that many young Arabs project in the Survey’s findings is betrayed by numerous indications that countries like the US and its allies in the region have little to no interest in rebuilding Iraq and Syria, for instance. It is thus hard to be upbeat about the lasting defeat of extremists when governments are not willing to do what it takes to help keep them defeated.
Similar patterns in 2008 and 2014, of false hopes, should not be allowed to happen today. Most young Arabs believe Daesh and its ideology could be fully defeated, but that merely provides an opening for governments in the region and internationally to engage these young people and address grievances that could enable Daesh and other extremists to make a comeback.
Founder, ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller and President, Middle East, of Burson Cohn & Wolfe
Senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University
Mina Al Oraibi
Editor-in-Chief, The National, UAE
Senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C.
Editor-in-chief, Al Khaleej newspaper UAE
Osama Al Sharif
Journalist and political commentator
Khalid Al Maeena
Former Editor-in-Chief of Arab News
Stevens Initiative at Aspen Institute
Watch Findings Debated
Watch our panel of experts discuss the key findings of the ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2018. The wide-ranging conversation takes on hot-button issues facing youth today, including how they view their future, the digital revolution and shifting attitudes to the region’s friends and enemies.